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\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd8\u662f\u90a3\u4e2a\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

2016\u5e74\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u66fe\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u51fa\u4e4e\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u6599\u3002\u4f462020\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u5374\u8868\u660e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0a\u53f0\u4ee5\u6765\u5404\u79cd\u79bb\u7ecf\u53db\u9053\u3001\u80e1\u4f5c\u975e\u4e3a\u5730\u6298\u817e\u56db\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u53d8\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u7ea2\u5dde\u4f9d\u65e7\u662f\u7ea2\u5dde\uff0c\u84dd\u5dde\u4ecd\u65e7\u662f\u84dd\u5dde\uff0c\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u6447\u6446\u3002<\/p>\n

11\u67083\u65e5\u7684\u6295\u7968\u9664\u4e86\u9009\u51fa\u603b\u7edf\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5c06\u9009\u51fa35\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\uff08U.S. Senate\uff09\u8bae\u5458\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u90e8435\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\uff08U.S. House of Representatives\uff09\u884c\u4f7f\u6295\u7968\u6743\u7684\u8bae\u5458\u3002\uff08\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u4efb\u671f6\u5e74\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5927\u9009\u5e74\u5728100\u4e2a\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5e2d\u4f4d\u4e2d\u5927\u7ea6\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u8981\u6539\u9009\u3002\u4f17\u8bae\u5458\u4efb\u671f2\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5076\u6570\u5e74\u6539\u9009\u3002\uff09\u5728\u5dde\u4e00\u7ea7\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u8fd8\u8981\u9009\u51fa11\u4f4d\u5dde\u957f\u548c5000\u591a\u540d\u5dde\u8bae\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6309\u7167\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u6cd5\uff0c\u672c\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u539f\u5b9a\u6539\u9009\u53c2\u8bae\u966233\u5e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u9ea6\u51ef\u6069\uff08John McCain\uff09\u5728\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458Johnny Isakson\u5728\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u9000\u4f11\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9009\u51fa35\u540d\u65b0\u4efb\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u3002\u622a\u6b62\u5230\u53d1\u7a3f\u65f6\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee548\u5bf947\u4fdd\u6301\u591a\u6570\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5219\u540c\u6837\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u539f\u6765\u7684\u6837\u5b50\uff0c\u622a\u6b62\u5230\u53d1\u7a3f\u65f6\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u4f17\u8bae\u9662435\u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u4e2d\u5df2\u6709392\u5e2d\u5b8c\u6210\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4ee5204\u5e2d\u5bf9\u5171\u548c\u515a188\u5e2d\uff0c\u9886\u514814\u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f69\u6d1b\u897f\u201c\u5b88\u4f4f\u201d\u4e86\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u3002\u4e24\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5728\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u4ece\u5171\u548c\u515a\u624b\u4e2d\u91cd\u593a\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u6539\u9009\u524d\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5728\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u5360\u6709232\u5e2d\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u5360\u6709197\u5e2d\uff0c1\u5e2d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u81ea\u7531\u515a\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u67095\u5e2d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c4f\u606f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdf\u8fdf\u65e0\u6cd5\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c2016\u5e74\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u540e\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u4e00\u5e55\u518d\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u8003\u8651\u79fb\u6c11\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8c37\u6b4c\u8d8b\u52bf\uff08Google Trends\uff09\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ec5\u523011\u67083\u65e5\u665a10\u70b9\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7528\u6237\u5bf9\u201c\u5982\u4f55\u79fb\u5c45\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u201d\u7684\u641c\u7d22\u91cf\u6bd42\u65e5\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u81f3\u5c11\u589e\u957f\u4e86700%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e5f\u90fd\u5728\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5a92\u4f53\u66f4\u662f\u4ece\u5404\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u5168\u5929\u6eda\u52a8\u64ad\u62a5\u3002\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u575b\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u9b41\u5317\u514b\u653f\u56e2\uff08Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois\uff09\u515a\u9886Yves-Fran\u00e7ois Blanchet\u548c\u65b0\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u515a\u9886Jagmeet Singh\u516c\u5f00\u8868\u6001\u652f\u6301\u62dc\u767b\u5f53\u9009\uff0cYves-Fran\u00e7ois Blanchet\u8fd8\u6279\u8bc4\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u9009\u7968\u6ca1\u6709\u6e05\u70b9\u5b8c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5148\u884c\u5ba3\u5e03\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4eb5\u6e0e\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u90fd\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u4e00\u79cd\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u603b\u7406\u7279\u9c81\u591a\u3001\u4fdd\u5b88\u515a\u515a\u9886\u6b27\u56fe(Erin O’Toole)\u3001\u9b41\u7701\u7701\u957fFran\u00e7ois Legault\u7b49\u90fd\u8868\u793a\u5c06\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u5927\u9009\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u62d2\u7edd\u5728\u5e0c\u671b\u8c01\u80fd\u5f53\u9009\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u8868\u6001\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u8bba\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u201c\u6446\u6b63\u4e86\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5e76\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u201d\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5408\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\u526f\u603b\u7406\u65b9\u6167\u5170\uff08Chrystia Freeland\uff09\u5728\u8868\u793a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ecb\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u8c01\u5f53\u603b\u7edf\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u627f\u8bfa\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u5df2\u7ecf\u51c6\u5907\u968f\u65f6\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f4f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5e94\u5f15\u4ee5\u4e3a\u6212<\/strong><\/p>\n

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2016\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u6709\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u5c06\u83b7\u80dc\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bcc\u6709\u4e16\u754c\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u5927\u5a92\u4f53\u5305\u62ec\u8def\u900f\u793e\u3001\u8d6b\u82ac\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u3001CNN\u548c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u5206\u522b\u9884\u6d4b\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u670990%\u300198%\u300191%\u548c85%\u7684\u80dc\u9009\u51e0\u7387\u3002\u56e0\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b2012\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u800c\u540d\u58f0\u5927\u566a\u7684\u805a\u5408\u6c11\u8c03\u9884\u6d4b\u673a\u6784FiveThirtyEight\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u670971%\u51e0\u7387\u80dc\u9009\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u5374\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8d62\u5f97\u603b\u7edf\u5b9d\u5ea7\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u9519\u5f97\u79bb\u8c31\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u626b\u4e86\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u6c11\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u7684\u989c\u9762\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u56db\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d\u548c\u8c03\u6574\u540e\uff0c2020\u5e74\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u5374\u91cd\u8e48\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u8986\u8f99\uff0c\u4e25\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4ed6\u6ca1\u50cf\u6c11\u8c03\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u90a3\u4e48\u4e0d\u53d7\u5f85\u89c1\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u4e5f\u6ca1\u50cf\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u53d7\u4eba\u6b22\u8fce\u3002 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2016\u5e74\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u66fe\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u51fa\u4e4e\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u6599\u3002\u4f462020\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u5374\u8868\u660e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0a\u53f0\u4ee5\u6765\u5404\u79cd\u79bb\u7ecf\u53db\u9053\u3001\u80e1\u4f5c\u975e\u4e3a\u5730\u6298\u817e\u56db\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u53d8\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u7ea2\u5dde\u4f9d\u65e7\u662f\u7ea2\u5dde\uff0c\u84dd\u5dde\u4ecd\u65e7\u662f\u84dd\u5dde\uff0c\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u6447\u6446\u3002 11\u67083\u65e5\u7684\u6295\u7968\u9664\u4e86\u9009\u51fa\u603b\u7edf\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5c06\u9009\u51fa35\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\uff08U.S. Senate\uff09\u8bae\u5458\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u90e8435\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\uff08U.S. House of Representatives\uff09\u884c\u4f7f\u6295\u7968\u6743\u7684\u8bae\u5458\u3002\uff08\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u4efb\u671f6\u5e74\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5927\u9009\u5e74\u5728100\u4e2a\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5e2d\u4f4d\u4e2d\u5927\u7ea6\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u8981\u6539\u9009\u3002\u4f17\u8bae\u5458\u4efb\u671f2\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5076\u6570\u5e74\u6539\u9009\u3002\uff09\u5728\u5dde\u4e00\u7ea7\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u8fd8\u8981\u9009\u51fa11\u4f4d\u5dde\u957f\u548c5000\u591a\u540d\u5dde\u8bae\u5458\u3002 \u6309\u7167\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u6cd5\uff0c\u672c\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u539f\u5b9a\u6539\u9009\u53c2\u8bae\u966233\u5e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u9ea6\u51ef\u6069\uff08John McCain\uff09\u5728\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458Johnny 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